Will this olive branch break?

It's official: Karzai is reaching out to the Taliban. A peace council has been announced, including former Taliban government officials and a handful of female representatives.

It's a cute idea.

Joshua Foust has posted an interesting commentary defending Karzai's situation. I agree in that he really does have a mountain to climb, between pacifying constituents, insurgents, and warlords. The corruption in his administration, whether of his own making or not, is also another thing he has to contend with.

There is however a BIIIIIG issue.

There really is no "one" Taliban.

Remember (if you are old enough and lived in the UK) when wearing orange in certain parts of Belfast would've gotten you shot? Or living on a certain street could get your house bombed?

That supposedly ended with the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 between the IRA/Sinn Fein and the British.

But as recently as Saturday, there have been reports of increasing dissident activity from fringe elements of the IRA. Or the "Real" IRA, as they call themselves. And they don't give a rat's rear end about peace agreements.

So there is an inherent danger that even if the Karzai administration makes peace with some of the leading Taliban leaders, there will be others in the wings who don't like the principal actors waiting for their moment in the spotlight. And it won't be pretty.

I have a professor who is of the opinion that this may be more of a publicity stunt, making this olive branch one of plastic. It would benefit the US withdrawal plan as they can fully hand over the reins to the government, and it would look good to the public if the more hardline elements look like they're willing to bargain.